Original Date: 02/24/1997
Revision Date: 04/14/2003
Information : Business Forecasting, Receipt and Issue
The new procedure for forecasting the shipment of ammunition and receipt of short tons for installations is based on plans and estimates from military theaters around the world, Continental United States (CONUS) movement, and projections from other services. The forecast is designed to provide depots and arsenals a means of developing costing rates, manpower estimates, and storage space requirements for the pending movements. The former method was a manual forecast developed by Item Managers (IMs) in a total review of the types of items to be moved in a given year. This was labor intensive, expensive, and time consuming.
The current methodology for developing ammunition movement forecasts considers several factors. First, the Army's Tiering System delineates where high priority stocks should be placed for mobilization contingencies. As transportation and re-warehousing dollars allow, the war readiness materiel coming from overseas and new production items are designated to go to installations responsible for immediate support to combat areas. Training support for all services is factored, as are installation storage capabilities for the material being moved. Pre-position materiel returns from support vessels at sea and replenishment stocks for the ships are also considered. Another major element is the Base Realignment and Closure actions. Those decisions force the relocation of thousands of tons of ammunition each year to designated CONUS sites.
The former method of forecasting was essentially a line-by-line scrub of the material managed by IMs within the Single Manager for Conventional Ammunition at Rock Island. This review was designed to consider, individually, which items would move during a given year based on the factors listed above. This was extremely time consuming and labor intensive but provided a more detailed plan for the installations to manipulate their funding and manpower. The Industrial Operations Command (IOC) is striving for a forecast that is more than an estimate to assist its customers for budgetary considerations and its subordinate installations for planning purposes.
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